Russia likely to use UAV strike on Kremlin to cancel parade timed to May 9 – ISW

Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The report of Western analysts notes that Russian officials probably, “using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday.”

It is noted that Russian sources continued to respond to the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin. The Russian Investigative Committee announced that it opened a criminal case “on the fact of a terrorist attack in connection with an attempt to strike the Kremlin” and further amplified the claim that Kyiv is to blame for the strike.

They also said in the report that Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4.

The analysts also say that the Kremlin is reportedly continuing its overhaul of domestic security organs.

ISW has previously assessed that Russian authorities may use a series of new laws expanding punishments for discrediting the Russian Armed Forces, the misappropriation of military assets, and trespassing at facilities operated by security organs to support these efforts.

At the same time, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russian forces are likely unable to conduct a “significant offensive” in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages regardless of the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“Haines’ statements support and expand on ISW’s prior assessments that Russian forces are unable to conduct large-scale, simultaneous offensive campaigns on multiple axes,” the Institute notes.

Experts also point out that Russia and India have reportedly suspended trade in rupees. The stopped negotiations probably concern India’s payment to Russia for spare parts and two S-400 air defense systems.


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